Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
